JOHN MAYNARD KEYNES (1883-1946)
John Maynard Keynes nasceu em Cambridge, filho de John Neville Keynes. Estudou em Eton e no Kings College de Cambridge. Graduou-se em matemática e se especializou em economia, tendo estudado com Alfred Marshall e A. Pigou. Entrou como funcionário do Indian Office em 1906. Permaneceu dois anos na Ásia, até que em 1908 ingressou como professor de Economia em Cambridge, cargo que manteve até 1915. Em 1916 ingressou no Tesouro britânico onde ocupou cargos importantes. Representou este organismo na Conferência de Paz de Paris, cargo que renunciou em 1919 por ser contra o regime de reparações que estava sendo imposto à Alemanha. Voltou a Cambridge como professor e trabalhou, simultaneamente, com atividades privadas em empresas de seguros e investimentos, o que lhe proporcionou rendas relevantes. Criticou a política deflacionista do governo e se opôs, inutilmente, à volta ao padrão ouro.
Na década dos anos trinta os países do ocidente sofreram a mais grave crise econômica conhecida até o presente momento: a Grande Depressão. A corrente marginalista não estava capacitada para explicar esse fenômeno. Em 1936 J.M. Keynes publicou sua Teoria Geral do Emprego, os Juros e o Dinheiro, o livro que, sem dúvida alguma, tem influenciado de forma mais profunda o estilo de vida das sociedades industriais depois da segunda Guerra Mundial. As decisões de poupança são tomadas pelos indivíduos em função de sua renda, enquanto que as decisões de investimentos são tomadas pelos empresários em função de suas expectativas de lucro. Não há nenhuma razão pela qual a poupança e o investimento devam coincidir. Quando as expectativas dos empresários são favoráveis, grandes volumes de investimento provocam uma fase expansiva. Quando as expectativas são desfavoráveis, a contração da demanda pode provocar uma depressão. O Estado pode impedir a queda da demanda aumentando seus próprios gastos.
Durante a segunda guerra mundial Keynes retornou ao Tesouro britânico. Em 1944 liderou a delegação de seu país na Conferência de Bretton Woods, da qual surgiram o Banco Mundial e o Fundo Monetário Internacional. Morreu dois anos depois, em 1946, em Sussex.
OBRAS
"The Recent Economic Events in India", 1909, EJ
"Principal Averages and Laws of Error which Lead to Them", 1911, J of Royal Statis Soc
"Influence of Parental Alcoholism", 1911, J of Royal Statis Soc
"Irving Fisher's Purchasing Power of Money", 1911, EJ
"W.S. Jevons's Theory of Political Economy", 1912, EJ
"The Foreign Trade of the UK at Prices of 1900", 1912, EJ
"J.A. Hobson's Gold, Prices and Wages", 1913, EJ
Indian Currency and Finance , 1913.
"Ludwig von Mises' Theorie des Geldes", 1914, EJ
"The Prospects of Money", 1914, EJ
"War and the Financial System", 1914, EJ
"The City of London and the Bank of England", 1914, QJE
"Walter Bagehot's Works and Life", 1915, EJ
"The Economics of War in Germay", 1915, EJ
The Economic Consequences of the Peace , 1919. Las Consecuencias Económicas de la Paz
"Ralph G. Hawtrey's Currency and Credit", 1920, EJ
A Treatise on Probability, 1921.
Revision of the Treaty, 1922.
"The Inflation of Currency as a Method of Taxation", 1922, MGCRE
A Tract on Monetary Reform, 1923. Breve Tratado Sobre La Reforma Monetaria
"Some Aspects of Commodity Markets", 1923, Manchester Guardian
"A Reply to Sir William Beveridge's Population and Unemployment", 1923, EJ.
"Population and Unemployment", 1923, EJ
"The Measure of Deflation: an inquiry into index numbers", 1923, N&A
"Mr. Bonar Law", 1923, N&A
"Currency Policy and Unemployment", 1923, N&A
"Does Unemployment Need a Drastic Remedy?", 1924, N&A
"Edwin Montagu", 1924, N&A
"Alfred Marshall, 1842-1924", 1924, EJ and Memorials of Alfred Marshall, 1925.
"Monetary Reform", with E. Cannan, Addis and Milner, 1924, EJ
"A Comment on Professor Cannan", 1924, EJ
"The Gold Standard Act", 1925, EJ
"The Balfour Note and Inter-Allied Debts", 1925, N&A
The Economic Consequences of Mr. Churchill, 1925.
A Short View of Russia, 1925.
"Am I a Liberal?", 1925, N&A
The End of Laissez-Faire, 1926.
"Liberalism and Labour", 1926, N&A
Laissez Faire and Communism, 1926.
"Francis Ysidro Edgeworth", 1926, EJ
"Trotsky on England", 1926, N&A
"A Note on Economy", 1927, N&A
"A Model Form for Statements of International Balances", 1927, EJ
"The British Balance of Trade", 1927, EJ
"The United States Balance of Trade", 1928, EJ
"Amalgamation of the British Note Issue", 1928, EJ
"Postwar Depression in the Lancashire Cotton Industry", 1928, J of Royal Statistical Society
"Lord Oxford", 1928, N&A
"The Great Villiers Connection", 1928, N&A
Réflexions sur le franc, 1928.
"The French Stabilisation Law", 1928, EJ
"Frederic C. Mills' Behavior of Prices", 1928, EJ
"The War Debts", 1928, N&A
"A Rejoinder to Ohlin's The Reparation Problem", 1929, EJ
Can Lloyd George Do It? with H.D. Henderson, 1929.
"Winston Churchill", 1929, N&A
A Treatise on Money , two volumes, 1930.
"The Industrial Crisis", 1930, N&A
"The Great Slump of 1930", 1930, N&A
"Economic Possibilities for Our Grandchildren", 1930, N&A and Saturday Evening Post.
"Frank P. Ramsey", 1930, EJ and 1931, NSN
"A Rejoinder to D.H. Robertson, 1931, EJ
"Spending and Saving", 1931, The Listener
"The Problem of Unemployment", 1931, The Listener
"On the Eve of Gold Suspension", 1931, Evening Standard
"The End of the Gold Standard", 1931, Sunday Express
"After the Suspension of Gold", 1931, Times
"Proposals for a Revenue Tariff", 1931, NSN
"Some Consequences of the Economy Report", 1931, NSN
Essays in Persuasion, 1931
"The World's Economic Outlook" , 1932, Atlantic Monthly
"The Prospects of the Sterling Exchange", 1932, Yale Review
"The Dilemma of Modern Socialism", 1932, Political Quarterly
"Member Bank Reserves in the United States", 1932, EJ
The World's Economic Crisis and the Way of Escape with A. Salter, J. Stamp, B. Blackett, H. Clay and W. Beveridge, 1932.
"Saving and Usury", 1932, EJ
"A Note on the Long-Term Rate of Interest in Relation to the Conversion Scheme", 1932, EJ
"A Monetary Theory of Production", 1933, in Festschrift für Arthur Spiethoff.
"Mr. Robertson on Saving and Hoarding", 1933, EJ
"An Open Letter to President Roosevelt", 1933, New York Times
"The Means to Prosperity", 1933, Times
"National Self-Sufficiency", 1933, Yale Review
"The Multiplier", 1933, NSN
Essays in Biography, 1933
The Means to Prosperity, 1933.
"Commemoration of T.R. Malthus", 1935, EJ
"The Future of the Foreign Exchange", 1935, Lloyds Bank Review
"William Stanley Jevons", 1936, JRSS
"Herbert Somerton Foxwell", 1936, EJ
"The Supply of Gold", 1936, EJ
"Fluctuations in Net Investment in the United States", 1936, EJ
General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money , 1936.
Teoría General de la Ocupación, el Interés y el Dinero
"The General Theory of Empoyment", 1937, QJE -
"Professor Pigou on Money Wages in Relation to Unemployment", with N. Kaldor, EJ
"Alternative Theories of the Rate of Interest", 1937, EJ
"The Ex Ante Theory of the Rate of Interest", EJ
"The Theory of the Rate of Interest", 1937, in Lessons of Monetary Experience: In honor of Irving Fisher
"Some Economic Consequences of a Declining Population", 1937, Eugenics Review
"Comments on Mr. Robertson's `Mr Keynes and Finance'", 1938, EJ.
"Storage and Security", 1938, NSN.
"The Policy of Government Storage of Foodstuffs and Raw Materials", 1938, EJ
"Mr. Keynes's Consumption Function: A reply", 1938, QJE - reply to Holden (1938).
"Mr Keynes on the Distribution of Income and the Propensity to Consume: A reply", 1939, RES
"Adam Smith as Student and Professor", 1938, EJ
"Introduction to David Hume, An Abstract of a Treatise on Human Nature", with P. Sraffa, 1938.
"James E. Meade's Consumers' Credits and Unemployment", 1938, EJ
"The Process of Capital Formation", 1939, EJ
"Professor Tinbergen's Method", 1939, EJ
"Relative Movements of Real Wages and Output", 1939, EJ
"The Income and Fiscal Potential of Great Britain", 1939, EJ
"The Concept of National Income: Supplementary note", 1940, EJ
How to Pay for the War: A radical plan for the Chancellor of the Exchequer, 1940.
"The Objective of International Price Stability", 1943, EJ.
"Mary Paley Marshall", 1944, EJ
"The Balance of Payments of the United States", 1946, EJ
"Newton the Man", 1947, Newton Tercentenary Celebrations, 1947.